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2013 Hoops Nerd NCAA Player Ratings

As usual, the COMPLETE national rankings - including Impact rating (HnI), can be found in the 2012-13CollegePDFs page.

Weird stuff.  First off - I didn't realize I hadn't made this post, I compiled the ratings and I guess never posted the final results.  Shows how distracted I've been.  Here's a repost of the post that was never "officially" made.

Adding to the weirdness - the final ratings took an unexpected turn.  As I've mentioned before, I don't compile my own team ratings - I use Jeff Sagarin's team ratings as a base (I adjust them to very closely resemble Off/Def team ratios with 100 being pretty much D1 average).  Anyway, it appears that Jeff may have found an error that had been carrying through the last few weeks of his team ratings - and "fixed" his team ratings after the final game.  Most teams saw a team rating change greater than would be predicted after the last game, even though only two teams played.  This final team rating adjustment actually made the top of my Hoops Nerd rankings change - since Bucknell got just over a 4% team rating boost in the final adjustment (causing Mike Muscala to get his own personal just over 4% boost in his final rating).  Georgetown's rating dropped slightly, causing Otto Porter's rating to drop slightly also.  And, of course, Trey Burke fell right in between.  The final "adjustment" on the team level passes my eye test - for example, I had thought Bucknell to be rated a little lower than I thought they should before the final ratings came out.  Honestly, the player ratings don't change that much in general (the majority seeing a less than 1% change - the outliers being close to a +/- 5%) - even though my top three that were so close got shuffled.  I won't include a last week rank or a change column - since one can't tell how much of the change was player performance based, and how much was final team rating adjustment based.

Rank HnR Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
1 194 Mike Muscala Bucknell 31.7 18.7 11.1 2.3 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.569
2 190 Trey Burke Michigan 35.3 18.6 3.2 6.7 1.6 0.5 2.2 0.565
3 185 Otto Porter Georgetown 35.4 16.2 7.5 2.7 1.8 0.9 1.5 0.585
4 181 Erick Green Virginia Tech 36.4 25.0 4.0 3.8 1.3 0.2 2.2 0.586
5 178 Kelly Olynyk Gonzaga 26.4 17.8 7.3 1.7 0.7 1.1 2.4 0.669
6 176 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Georgia 33.9 18.5 7.1 1.8 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.574
7 176 Doug McDermott Creighton 31.6 23.2 7.7 1.6 0.2 0.1 2.6 0.666
8 175 Victor Oladipo Indiana 28.4 13.6 6.3 2.1 2.2 0.8 2.3 0.665
9 173 Cody Zeller Indiana 29.5 16.5 8.1 1.3 1.0 1.3 2.3 0.614
10 173 Mason Plumlee Duke 34.7 17.1 9.9 1.9 1.0 1.4 2.9 0.620
11 172 Taylor Smith Steph. F. Austin 33.8 15.7 9.2 1.8 1.0 2.8 1.9 0.646
12 170 Russ Smith Louisville 30.3 18.7 3.3 2.9 2.1 0.1 2.7 0.536
13 168 Jeff Withey Kansas 30.9 13.7 8.5 0.9 0.8 3.9 2.0 0.614
14 167 Pierre Jackson Baylor 34.8 19.8 3.8 7.1 1.5 0.0 3.4 0.569
15 166 Romero Osby Oklahoma 28.5 16.0 7.0 1.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.597
16 165 Marcus Smart Oklahoma St 33.5 15.4 5.8 4.2 3.0 0.7 3.4 0.526
17 165 Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse 35.2 11.9 5.0 7.3 2.7 0.5 3.5 0.487
18 164 Dwayne Evans St. Louis 29.6 14.0 7.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.8 0.605
19 164 Gorgui Dieng Louisville 31.1 9.8 9.4 2.0 1.3 2.5 1.8 0.557
20 163 Nate Wolters S Dakota St 38.1 22.3 5.6 5.8 1.7 0.1 2.3 0.599
21 162 Davante Gardner Marquette 21.4 11.5 4.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.659
22 161 Arsalan Kazemi Oregon 29.0 9.4 10.0 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.5 0.618
23 161 Jamaal Franklin San Diego St 33.1 16.9 9.5 3.3 1.6 0.8 3.4 0.530
24 160 Anthony Bennett UNLV 27.1 16.1 8.1 1.0 0.7 1.2 1.9 0.603
25 160 Shane Larkin Miami-Fla. 36.4 14.5 3.8 4.6 2.0 0.1 2.3 0.596


Mike Muscala ended up #1, a rare #1 rated player from a smaller school.  I'd guess it's possible he may be the only #1 from a smaller school from the last 15 years - which we'll know for sure when I get the last 15 years done in the next 6 weeks or so.  There wasn't a complete superstar level college player this season (think of guys like Anthony Davis, Kemba Walker, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, etc) to run away with the #1 rating.  That being said - when it was all said and done Trey Burke was the best player in the nation in my eyes.  My rating treats every game the same, there's really no way to account for higher leverage (history making) games. Well, Trey's rating was close enough to #1 (well within my usual 5% deviation for subjectivity), and his last 6 games were so high leverage - I am comfortable with claiming he was the best despite his slightly lower rating overall.

However you slice it - I see the top three as being a given for first team AA.  The rest are quite tightly bunched - people can judge how they want to personally rank the players how they see fit when the ratings are close.

It was a fun season - time for me to hole up and get all the historical stuff done.  I'll try to post historical season results as I finish them, hopefully a couple seasons a week.  Man, that'll be a ton of work - wish me luck.

Dan
April 22, 2013




2013 Hoops Nerd All NCAA Tourney Team

Doing player ratings for a small sample size - like a single elimination tourney - is a little tricky.  One can't adjust for strength of schedule - so some team ratings are a bit skewed to the positive with early round blow outs against poor teams (like, Syracuse beating Montana 80-34).  Some players with modest looking stats may rate well because their teams won low scoring grind it out affairs - better than some players with "better looking" stats on teams that played a much faster pace but gave up 80 ppg.  Some players just went farther in the tourney - so even though their rating on the games they played may be lower, they still should maybe be considered ahead of higher "rated" players whose teams didn't advance as far.

So, this is my list.  31 players who either had good tourneys and advanced far (Trey Burke) - or maybe even had great tourneys but got eliminated earlier (Mark Lyons).  I ranked players by 1st team, 2nd team, and Honorable Mention.  The final 11 were pretty much the "best of the rest" of players that advanced to at least the Elite 8 (with the best remaining Sweet 16 guy thrown in for the Cinderella, ie FGCU, lovers).  Within those rankings I pretty much ranked them in order of games played (how far they advanced) and then by their rating relative to playing time.  Considering all the limitations I outlined above, subjectivity obviously has to play a part in deciphering the rating results:

TM Player Team  GP  Mn/g  Pt/g  Rb/g   A/g  S/g  B/g  T/g     TS%   HnR
1   Mitch McGary Michigan 6 30.7 14.3 10.7 1.5 2.0 1.2 1.8 0.642 157
1   Russ Smith Louisville 6 32.2 22.3 1.7 2.2 2.5 0.2 3.0 0.551 142
1   Luke Hancock Louisville 6 23.3 11.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.802 143
1   Gorgui Dieng Louisville 6 28.5 8.7 7.3 1.7 1.3 2.5 1.8 0.703 138
1   Cleanthony Early WSU 5 29.6 16.2 7.6 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.0 0.596 151
2   Trey Burke Michigan 6 35.8 15.5 3.5 6.3 1.5 0.7 3.2 0.489 122
2   Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse 5 35.6 10.8 6.4 4.0 2.6 0.6 3.2 0.486 140
2   C.J. Fair Syracuse 5 35.2 15.4 5.4 0.6 1.6 1.2 1.6 0.520 139
2   Mark Lyons Arizona 3 34.3 24.3 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.3 0.709 167
2   Arsalan Kazemi Oregon 3 34.7 10.0 15.0 2.3 1.7 1.0 1.3 0.600 161
HM Mason Plumlee Duke 4 33.5 16.0 8.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 3.0 0.696 138
HM Seth Curry Duke 4 37.0 21.0 3.5 0.8 1.3 0.0 1.3 0.618 135
HM Derrick Nix MSU 3 28.0 15.0 10.7 1.0 2.3 0.0 1.7 0.495 170
HM Victor Oladipo Indiana 3 31.3 14.3 5.7 1.3 1.3 0.3 1.7 0.672 164
HM Shane Larkin Miami 3 36.0 13.7 3.0 6.0 1.7 0.0 2.0 0.577 147
HM Jeff Withey Kansas 3 35.0 15.0 10.0 1.7 0.7 5.7 3.3 0.643 146
HM Andre Hollins Minn. 2 33.0 26.5 7.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.757 195
HM Khalif Wyatt Temple 2 39.0 31.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 0.0 2.0 0.564 172
HM P.J. Hairston UNC 2 31.0 19.0 7.0 2.0 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.623 172
HM Jamaal Franklin SDSU 2 36.5 20.5 9.5 4.5 3.0 0.0 3.5 0.672 163
Peyton Siva Louisville 6 30.0 10.2 2.8 4.7 2.3 0.2 2.2 0.442 124
Chane Behanan Louisville 6 24.2 8.8 6.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.570 125
Glenn Robinson Michigan 6 36.5 13.0 5.5 0.8 1.2 0.3 1.0 0.703 115
Brandon Triche Syracuse 5 35.6 12.4 3.4 3.8 1.4 0.0 2.8 0.530 131
James Southerland Syracuse 5 32.0 9.8 5.2 0.8 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.538 130
Carl Hall Wichita St 5 27.4 11.6 4.8 0.6 0.8 2.4 2.2 0.592 124
Vander Blue Marquette 4 35.5 18.3 3.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 3.5 0.549 125
LaQuinton Ross Ohio St 4 20.3 15.0 4.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.606 133
Deshaun Thomas Ohio St 4 36.3 21.8 3.5 1.3 0.5 0.5 2.5 0.617 121
Mike Rosario Florida 4 27.8 14.3 2.8 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.3 0.594 127
Sherwood Brown Fla. Gulf Coast 3 34.0 18.3 7.7 1.0 1.3 0.0 1.3 0.640 139



If you HAD to pick Tourney MOP from the champion - I guess Russ Smith is the guy, despite his very poor shooting in the finals.  He's a much better defensive player than Luke Hancock - and played much more.  Russ was their superstar all season.  However, Hancock was a stone cold KILLER, his offensive efficiency for the tourney was practically off the charts.  I have ZERO problems with people saying Hancock was MOP, he very well may have been - his production in the tourney when he was actually on the court was definitely the tops on Louisville.  It was really a team effort for Louisville though - which is why I included Dieng and his outstanding defense and great offensive efficiency (in very limited touches) on the first team.
 
Now, honestly, the best player in the tourney was Mitch McGary.  He was simply outstanding, overall he carried Michigan.  He had the highest HnR of any player that got past the Sweet 16 - and would have been an EASY MOP choice if somehow Michigan had pulled off that final upset.  Trey Burke is Michigan's team leader - and he single handily WILLED them past Kansas the final five minutes and OT in that game - but he had a somewhat subpar tourney compared to his elite regular season.  He was Michigan's 2nd best player in the tourney though, and without him they don't come anywhere close to making it past Kansas - so he makes my 2nd team on those two things alone.

My other first teamer, Cleanthony Early, seemed to fly a bit under the radar (at least to me when I watched).  The cameras and announcers seemed to LOVE Carl Hall (cool goggles and impressive blocks), Malcolm Armstead (the PG who ran the show), and Ron Baker (the shaggy haired white kid who shoots threes) - but Early was THE reason they made it as far as they did.  He did everything - score, rebound, hit threes, not turn the ball over - much like he had done all season.

I don't think I need to say much more - the numbers and ratings in the chart above pretty much tell the story.  I thought is was a pretty solid tourney - with an EPIC final game.  I expect by next season I'll have found a nice groove on how to best preview these games and present the player rating data - and hopefully to a much larger audience.  I'll also try to not actually be working full time at my actual job as I do the write ups (actually take some leave) - to better allow me to really delve head first into the tourney minutiae.

Thanks to the handful of people that gave me props for the work I was trying to put together for the tourney - you guys helped inspire me past the often complete lack of sleep to get the stuff done - even if sometimes game write ups were getting completed as the game started.  I knew I was writing for many - but I was writing for TRUE hoops nerds.

OK - on to the Final Season Ratings and past NCAA & NBA player ratings - one season at a time......

Dan
April 16, 2013



Sorry about the hiatus

Life has been a little busy for me, and I haven't looked at basketball stats for about a week.  I actually compiled the NCAA tourney stats a week ago, but then was too busy at the time (and since) to get a write up done.  Well, I'll try to get that up before I have to run off to work tonight.  I also should have the final NCAA player stats done by tomorrow morning at the latest.

I've conceded that my man Trey Burke didn't wrestle #1 in HnR away from Otto Porter - I've accepted that fact.  Their ratings are well within 5% of each other, which is my understood margin of error (or "standard deviation", or whatever other related term you like).  I have no problems with stating Trey Burke was the NCAA POY, his rating is based solely on the games he played - and let's just say his final 6 games were a bit more high leverage (even though he actually played a below his elite seasonal norm overall in those games) than Otto's.  But, the Hoops Nerd Rating #1 this season will be Otto Porter by a slight margin over Mike Muscala and Mr. Burke.  Heck, I'm not even certain Trey ended up #3 (Mr. Caldwell-Pope and Mr. Green also had great ratings despite their team struggles), I'll guess we'll find out maybe tomorrow.

The final game was incredible.  Great game.  It confused things a bit in terms of the Tourney MOP - since neither Russ Smith or Mitch McGary really stepped up and grabbed the honor.  Hancock might have - despite his limited minutes as THE three point gunner for the Cardinals.  I'll get into that in my next post - with, you know, stats and stuff.  The usual.

While it is the off season in terms of college basketball - I WILL be posting historical seasons as I get them compiled.  I have more than a ton of work to do before the NBA draft - please check in from time to time to see which historical college and NBA seasons are completed and posted.  Probably within two weeks of the draft I'll start doing draft write ups on how I see the NBA futures of the college kids going pro.  I might have some real in depth stuff never seen before - IF I can get it all done.  We can dream.

Thanks.

Dan
April 16, 2013


Michigan v. Louisville - The Finals

No, I'm not going to produce a bunch or ratings - I'm going to sit back and enjoy the Finals.  All the players on both teams are quite well known entities now - especially if you've been following the Tourney updates here and checking out the Player Rankings as the latter half of the season progressed.  If you want to compare player rating skillsets for this game - just check the last post, the ratings would not have changed much in one game.

I'll be rooting for Michigan, since I was born in Flint and I did spend the first twelve years of my life there (Birch Run, to be exact).  I have a soft spot for Michigan and Michigan State - we left Michigan before I could decide on an allegiance to one over the other.  Now, I'd root for BOTH Michigan schools to lose every game next year if that ensured my Alma Mater would win the championship next season (if you're new here - that would be the University of Arizona - and yes, the Wildcats will be very good next year) - but in this one game instance, I might put on the old school Michigan jersey that hangs in the closet.

I'm also biased for another reason - because I really want Trey Burke to reach out and snatch the Hoops Nerd #1 ranking for the year.  I really jumped the gun a bit just over a week ago after his BLISTERING five minutes of basketball in which he willed Michigan to victory over Kansas - assuming he had claimed the #1 spot.  I was wrong.  Fact is, it is difficult for a player who has put up elite numbers all season to increase his rating much in one or two games - without putting up MASSIVE numbers.  Trey has been good this tourney, but outside those five minutes versus Kansas he has performed a little bit below his season averages.  Heck, the #1 spot might be a little too out of reach for what is now one game, unfortunately.  McGary, on the other hand, has become a star - he made a monumental jump into the Hoopsnerd National top 100 - and is obviously the biggest reason why Michigan has stepped up in this tourney.  My ratings had him as the 2nd best player on that team most of the last two months of the season, despite his limited minutes and flashier teammates like Tim Hardaway Jr., and his coach entrusting big minutes to him when it has mattered most was a move long needed for that team.

Sorry I don't have much to say about Louisville - except they should win.  They are loaded, deep, and athletic.  They don't shoot as well as Michigan, and their star "true" point guard (Siva) is not the level of all around player offensively that Trey Burke is - BUT they do about everything else better or much better than Michigan.  In my eyes - Russ Smith has a lot of Iverson in his game - speed/quickness/body control/drawing fouls/fearlessness.  They have the best pressure defense in the nation, and one of the best post defenders in the nation as well (Dieng) - that is a crazy dangerous combination.

Sagarin Predictor has Louisville winning by over three (+3.27), Pomeroy has Louisville by 5.  My optimized lineups projections has Louisville by pretty much 8, which doesn't bode well for Michigan.  Trey Burke better have had his Wheaties, because he will be one worn out dude come the end of this game having to break Louisville's pressure defense all game.  Maybe more than any game all season - it's almost all on Burk - breaking the pressure and finding the open shooters, and McGary - trying to outrebound a team with better rebounding depth and also defend the post (and stay out of foul trouble) against Russ Smith's relentless attacking of the hoop.  Michigan will also need a HUGE shooting game from at least one of their three hired guns (Hardaway, Robinson, & Stauskas).  Tall order, but it's obviously possible.

Should be fun.

Dan
April 8, 2013



Final 4 Ratings Cornucopia

The Final 4 players ranked in terms of Impact Rating.  Notice the National rankings will be a bit different from HnR for some guys that missed games due to injury (Dieng & Hall are obvious examples) - since the Impact Rating better judges the player's impact at the moment when available to play.  M? is the predicted minutes for the game for optimized team lineup ratings - it'll fall somewhere between the player's maximum and minimum minutes in previous tourney games (except Kevin Ware, who is 0), depending on the player's rating in relation to his teammates.  All maximized lineup ratings are based off these minute projections.

I adjusted font sizes for each rating subset - the biggest are the guys whose particular rating was better than the Final 4 maximized lineups average, the normal size for guys that fell between the Final 4 average and D1 average, and the tiny size is for the guys below D1 average.  The Best Player in the Final 4 in each subset will have their rating bolded & underlined - while the very worst will have their rating underlined:

Rank Player Team  M?     HnI       Sco      2pt      FT     3pt      Rb    BaH     Def      Int
NCAA D1 Best Player 190 169 112 64 93 84 59 64 41
3 Trey Burke Mich 39 186 110 49 26 35 16 56 20 -16
7 Russ Smith Loui 34 174 133 48 58 28 24 7 26 -16
11 Gorgui Dieng Loui 34 171 71 52 20 0 67 4 41 -13
17 Michael Carter-Williams Syra 38 166 61 24 25 11 28 52 35 -9
49 James Southerland Syra 37 153 104 31 13 60 35 1 25 -12
81 Peyton Siva Loui 33 147 63 28 20 15 14 47 27 -4
83 Carl Hall WSU 29 147 95 64 31 -1 54 -8 19 -14
100 Cleanthony Early WSU 32 144 115 55 37 23 47 -15 16 -19
105 Mitch McGary Mich 34 143 86 81 4 0 68 -13 26 -24
109 Chane Behanan Loui 25 142 71 59 14 -2 56 -7 25 -2
Final 4 Best Lineups Avg. 141 79 38 20 21 35 9 20 -3
145 Montrezl Harrell Loui 20 139 75 65 10 0 51 -9 22 1
149 Malcolm Armstead WSU 37 139 71 22 16 33 25 28 24 -10
212 C.J. Fair Syra 40 133 84 43 24 17 41 -10 20 -3
213 Wayne Blackshear Loui 22 133 78 34 15 29 31 1 13 10
215 Luke Hancock Loui 22 133 76 13 19 43 25 7 12 13
234 Brandon Triche Syra 40 131 78 36 26 16 23 12 13 6
266 Tim Hardaway Jr. Mich 39 130 84 33 15 36 22 7 8 9
272 Glenn Robinson Mich 37 130 75 52 13 10 34 5 13 2
295 Nik Stauskas Mich 38 128 88 18 19 51 18 4 8 11
319 Stephan Van Treese Loui 10 127 41 33 8 0 66 -3 18 5
- Jon Horford Mich 6 126 68 52 16 0 50 -6 16 -3
413 Rakeem Christmas Syra 22 123 50 42 8 0 48 -12 28 10
415 Baye Moussa Keita Syra 19 123 52 38 14 0 52 -10 24 5
453 Ron Baker WSU 34 122 74 15 24 35 25 11 11 1
463 Fred Van Vleet WSU 24 122 47 11 12 24 22 32 21 0
- DaJuan Coleman Syra 0 120 54 38 15 0 68 -24 20 3
573 Tekele Cotton WSU 29 118 49 24 10 15 35 12 14 8
583 Jordan Morgan Mich 0 118 61 54 7 0 57 -12 5 6
668 Demetric Williams WSU 7 115 52 22 18 12 19 12 13 20
700 Kevin Ware Loui 0 115 55 23 14 18 22 -6 23 21
782 Nick Wiggins WSU 0 113 82 17 16 49 26 -8 8 4
783 Jerami Grant Syra 3 113 50 26 16 8 44 -5 15 10
- Spike Albrecht Mich 5 104 46 4 10 32 18 25 12 3
1227 Jake White WSU 2 102 61 54 17 -9 55 -17 -4 7
1238 Ehimen Orukpe WSU 5 102 27 23 3 0 61 -27 28 14
NCAA D1 Avg. Player 101 59 27 16 16 29 1 11 0
1369 Trevor Cooney Syra 1 100 41 15 7 19 15 7 25 12
- Chadrack Lufile WSU 1 97 38 34 4 0 45 -4 12 6
2710 Caris LeVert Mich 2 71 17 0 4 13 16 20 -2 20
NCAA D1 Worst Player 13 -15 -15 -6 -17 6 -43 -13 -62


Trey Burk of Michigan is the highest rated Final 4 player, and is also the highest rated in terms of ball handling/passing.  His teammate Mitch McGary is the highest rating in terms of scoring from two point range and rebounding.

Louisville has the next two highest rated players after Burke, in Russ Smith and Gorgui Dieng.  Russ is the best in the Final 4 in overall scoring proficiency, as well as getting to and converting from the line.  Dieng is the best in terms of defensive stops.  Injured Kevin Ware had the highest intangibles ratings - meaning he must do things not seen in the box score (usually defensively) that ensure his playing time when healthy.

Syracuse's best player is Michael Carter-Williams, while James Southerland is the best remaining player in terms of three point proficiency.

Wichita State, is concordance to their "team" mentality - doesn't have a player that is the best in the Final 4 in any rating subset.

Using the optimized lineup minutes projections - we can rank the teams in each rating subset:

Team HnI
Loui 150
Mich 142
Syra 140
WSU 131
Team Sco
Mich 86
Loui 80
Syra 75
WSU 74
Team 2pt
Mich 45
Loui 42
Syra 35
WSU 32
Team FT
Loui 23
WSU 21
Syra 20
Mich 16
Team 3pt
Mich 26
WSU 21
Syra 20
Loui 15
Team Rb
Loui 39
Syra 36
WSU 35
Mich 31
Team BaH
Mich 12
WSU 9
Loui 9
Syra 8
Team Def
Loui 25
Syra 24
WSU 17
Mich 15


Louisville is the best overall, as well as best at free throw production (thanks largely to Russ Smith), rebounding, and defensive "stops".  They are the worst at three point production.

Michigan is the best at overall scoring, as well as scoring from two point range and three point range.  They are also the best at ball handling.  They are the worst at free throw production, rebounding, and defensive "stops".

Syracuse & Wichita State aren't the "best" at anything.  Syracuse is the worst at ball handling, while Wichita State is the lowest rated team - and is the worst at overall scoring proficiency and scoring from two point range. 

Dan
April 6, 2013


Final 4 Hoops Nerd Player Rankings

This is pretty much the info you get in the PDF National Rankings file - but just with the Final 4 teams.  I added 4 lower minute guys that weren't ranked nationally - since they probably will play some.  Kevin Ware obviously won't play for Louisville, but I included him for reference.  I'll be posting the "in depth" Impact Ratings fairly soon.  The Rank to the left is the player's National rank out of currently 2992 "qualified" players.  PreT is what their national ranking was before the NCAA tourney, while Chng is how much the player's rating changed during the tourney:

Rank PreT Player Team  GP  Mn/g  Pt/g  R/g  A/g  S/g  B/g  T/g  TS%  HnR  Chng
3 3 Trey Burke Mich 37 35.5 18.8 3.1 6.8 1.6 0.5 2.2 0.564 186 -1.3
7 12 Russ Smith Loui 38 30.1 18.9 3.4 2.9 2.1 0.1 2.6 0.546 175 6.8
15 21 Michael Carter-Williams Syra 39 35.2 12.1 5.0 7.4 2.7 0.5 3.4 0.491 167 5.3
18 20 Gorgui Dieng Loui 31 30.9 10.2 9.5 1.9 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.557 165 3.4
63 85 James Southerland Syra 33 29.6 13.5 5.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.1 0.591 150 3.2
71 74 Peyton Siva Loui 38 31.0 9.9 2.3 5.8 2.2 0.2 2.7 0.518 148 0.1
91 156 Cleanthony Early WSU 38 24.8 13.7 5.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.556 145 7.3
100 228 Mitch McGary Mich 37 19.0 7.4 6.2 0.5 1.1 0.7 1.2 0.590 144 11.9
101 94 Chane Behanan Loui 37 26.0 9.6 6.3 1.1 1.4 0.4 1.6 0.511 144 -0.8
107 161 Carl Hall WSU 31 28.6 12.6 6.9 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.3 0.570 143 5.3
135 150 Montrezl Harrell Loui 38 16.5 5.7 3.7 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.555 140 1.5
137 201 Malcolm Armstead WSU 38 28.6 10.8 3.8 3.9 1.9 0.1 2.3 0.515 140 6.0
192 206 Luke Hancock Loui 38 22.0 7.4 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 1.0 0.572 134 0.8
193 216 Wayne Blackshear Loui 37 20.4 7.8 3.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.531 134 1.5
197 254 C.J. Fair Syra 39 34.8 14.3 6.9 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.6 0.540 134 3.3
219 307 Brandon Triche Syra 39 33.6 13.7 3.4 3.5 1.3 0.1 2.7 0.514 132 4.0
253 352 Tim Hardaway Jr. Mich 36 34.7 14.6 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.5 1.9 0.545 130 4.4
257 355 Glenn Robinson Mich 37 33.5 11.0 5.5 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.616 130 4.4
287 376 Nik Stauskas Mich 37 31.2 11.5 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.638 129 4.3
315 256 Stephan Van Treese Loui 35 11.5 1.8 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.660 128 -2.6
- - Jon Horford Mich 30 9.1 2.8 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.601 126 0.3
389 500 Rakeem Christmas Syra 39 20.8 5.1 4.6 0.2 0.5 1.8 0.9 0.536 123 3.4
393 469 Baye Moussa Keita Syra 39 16.8 3.7 3.7 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.607 123 2.5
428 723 Fred Van Vleet WSU 38 16.0 4.3 1.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.491 122 8.2
468 841 Ron Baker WSU 17 25.6 8.6 2.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 1.3 0.582 121 10.1
538 791 Tekele Cotton WSU 38 23.6 6.4 3.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.504 119 6.6
- 985 DaJuan Coleman Syra 24 12.7 4.8 4.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.444 119 11.2
599 709 Jordan Morgan Mich 34 16.5 4.7 4.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.577 117 2.9
639 774 Demetric Williams WSU 38 25.4 7.6 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.0 1.7 0.492 116 3.3
691 825 Kevin Ware Loui 37 16.6 4.5 1.8 0.8 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.530 115 3.6
765 927 Jerami Grant Syra 39 14.2 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.502 113 4.3
768 957 Nick Wiggins WSU 35 13.1 5.0 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.574 113 4.8
- - Spike Albrecht Mich 37 7.7 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.581 105 8.7
1220 1248 Jake White WSU 36 11.1 3.6 3.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.514 103 0.5
1265 1372 Ehimen Orukpe WSU 35 15.4 2.7 4.4 0.2 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.457 102 1.8
1384 1540 Trevor Cooney Syra 38 11.4 3.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.432 100 3.0
- - Chadrack Lufile WSU 29 8.0 1.6 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.523 96 -0.8
2762 2692 Caris LeVert Mich 31 10.4 2.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.374 68 -3.7

Dan
April 6, 2013


Larry Scott - Fire Ed Rush Immediately....

Yes, it's April 1st - and no, I am not joking (unlike Ed, allegedly). 

If officials don't have integrity, how can we trust any call?

Dan
April 1, 2013


Kevin Ware.....

As a father of two young boys, my heart dropped seeing the injury Kevin Ware of Louisville suffered against Duke.  Outside of witnessing someone pass away on the court (which I pray I never see - Hank Gathers and Reggie Lewis come to mind), I can't imagine a more gut wrenching sight on the basketball court than what I saw just over an hour ago.  My prayers go out to him and his family, and that somehow he can eventually experience a full recovery.

I wasn't actually rooting for Louisville - but I ended up glad for him that they won the game.

Dan
March 31, 2013


Elite 8 Rating Break Downs

Here are the Elite 8 players again, this time I changed the qualifying minimum to 15% of available team minutes - to get some guys in that have been playing some in the tourney.  The players are still color coded by game.  The overall rating rank is Hoops Nerd Impact - the rating that doesn't adjust negatively due to missed games (more of an "at the moment" rating) - notice, as an example, a guy like Ryan Kelly rates about 9 points higher here than he did in his Hoops Nerd Rating the post below (the lower HnR due to missed games during the season).  The higher the number in rating category, the better.  The better than average Elite 8 player in a category will have their rating in bold and a little bigger, the lower than average Elite 8 player will have their rating not bolded and a little smaller.  Underline & italics ratings are either the very best or very worst.

The intangibles rating (Inta) is the final rating adjustment due to playing time in relation to production and team quality - a high production low minute guy will probably have a large negative here (Davante Gardner of Marquette) - the assumption being that he lacks in certain areas not "seen" in the box score that limits his minutes (Poor defense? Bad cardio? Foul prone?).  On the other hand, a low production but still getting quality minutes guy (Josh Hairston of Duke) will get a big positive here - the assumption being he must be doing things very well that don't show up in the box score (good/great defense?  Draws charges?  Great picks and spaces well?  Dates the coach's daughter?).  The defensive stops rating (Def) and the intangibles rating often can go hand in hand - usually high intangibles guys are good defenders.  If a guy is above average in both - he is almost certainly a good to great defender.  Anyway, enjoy:

Rnk Player Team Mn/g      HnI   Sco    2pt     FT    3pt   Reb   BaH    Def    Inta
Best Elite 8 Player 184 146 82 66 66 68 60 40 27
1 Trey Burke Mich 35.5 184 111 50 26 35 15 55 19 -16
2 Russ Smith Loui 30.0 173 132 46 57 29 24 8 26 -16
3 Mason Plumlee Duke 34.5 168 113 79 35 0 56 -8 20 -13
4 Gorgui Dieng Loui 31.1 167 69 49 20 0 66 4 40 -12
5 Michael Carter-Williams Syra 35.2 164 60 24 25 11 27 52 34 -9
6 Davante Gardner Marq 21.1 162 146 82 66 -2 53 -13 15 -39
7 Deshaun Thomas OSU 35.3 159 124 54 34 36 36 1 6 -7
8 Erik Murphy Flor 26.6 158 121 47 12 61 42 2 9 -14
9 Ryan Kelly Duke 29.1 153 98 29 31 39 37 11 21 -15
10 James Southerland Syra 29.3 152 103 30 13 59 35 1 25 -12
11 Patric Young Flor 26.6 147 83 71 13 0 52 -8 28 -7
12 Shannon Scott OSU 20.8 147 42 19 13 9 28 60 37 -19
13 Carl Hall WSU 28.6 146 96 65 31 -1 54 -7 17 -14
14 Seth Curry Duke 32.1 146 126 32 31 62 15 6 9 -9
15 Casey Prather Flor 17.0 145 88 77 9 2 47 2 24 -15
16 Peyton Siva Loui 30.9 145 61 26 19 16 14 47 27 -3
17 Cleanthony Early WSU 24.6 143 115 55 39 22 46 -15 15 -19
18 Chane Behanan Loui 26.0 141 71 58 15 -2 55 -7 24 -2
19 Aaron Craft OSU 34.0 140 60 29 21 10 20 39 25 -4
20 Mitch McGary Mich 18.9 140 84 80 4 0 68 -13 23 -22
21 Jamil Wilson Marq 25.1 140 89 37 22 29 42 6 13 -9
22 Montrezl Harrell Loui 16.5 139 76 66 10 0 51 -10 22 0
23 Malcolm Armstead WSU 28.3 139 73 24 16 33 25 28 24 -11
24 Scottie Wilbekin Flor 32.1 136 61 29 12 21 17 40 16 1
25 Kenny Boynton Flor 31.6 135 75 23 21 32 18 22 10 10
26 Mike Rosario Flor 29.5 135 93 35 20 38 18 7 12 6
27 Quinn Cook Duke 33.5 134 67 21 15 31 20 40 13 -5
28 Wayne Blackshear Loui 20.4 133 80 34 15 31 31 1 12 8
Avg Elite 8 Player 133 75 36 19 20 34 8 16 0
29 C.J. Fair Syra 34.7 131 84 42 24 18 41 -10 19 -2
30 Will Yeguete Flor 20.8 131 50 33 16 0 58 -5 22 6
31 Luke Hancock Loui 22.1 131 73 13 18 43 24 6 12 14
32 Brandon Triche Syra 33.5 130 78 36 26 16 22 12 13 6
33 Steve Taylor Marq 8.8 130 79 63 13 3 59 -9 16 -15
34 Sam Thompson OSU 24.9 130 74 38 16 20 29 3 19 5
35 Lenzelle Smith Jr. OSU 27.5 130 72 27 13 33 37 6 4 10
36 Michael Frazier Flor 18.0 130 81 2 12 66 33 4 6 6
37 Stephan Van Treese Loui 11.4 129 42 35 7 0 67 -2 19 4
38 Tim Hardaway Jr. Mich 34.7 128 86 34 15 37 22 6 8 7
39 LaQuinton Ross OSU 16.8 128 111 50 21 40 37 -29 7 2
40 Glenn Robinson Mich 33.5 128 76 53 13 10 34 5 13 0
41 Rasheed Sulaimon Duke 29.3 128 83 27 25 30 21 11 5 10
42 Vander Blue Marq 32.8 127 99 56 25 18 19 -4 10 2
43 Nik Stauskas Mich 31.2 126 83 18 19 46 18 3 8 13
44 Junior Cadougan Marq 28.0 126 59 39 17 3 21 26 15 5
45 Chris Otule Marq 17.5 125 74 67 7 0 48 -15 16 2
46 Evan Ravenel OSU 17.1 124 64 49 16 -1 54 -11 10 6
47 Amile Jefferson Duke 12.9 123 64 50 14 0 50 -4 13 0
48 Baye Moussa Keita Syra 16.7 123 53 39 14 0 52 -10 24 4
49 Trent Lockett Marq 27.0 123 55 22 25 9 42 2 9 15
50 Jon Horford Mich 9.1 123 63 46 17 0 48 -5 18 -2
51 Rakeem Christmas Syra 20.8 122 51 42 8 0 47 -12 28 9
52 Ron Baker WSU 25.2 122 74 18 18 39 25 13 11 -1
53 Fred Van Vleet WSU 15.8 119 44 9 10 24 22 33 20 1
54 DaJuan Coleman Syra 12.7 119 53 38 15 0 67 -24 19 4
55 Amir Williams OSU 16.5 119 49 30 19 0 56 -17 21 10
56 Tekele Cotton WSU 23.4 117 49 26 9 14 35 13 14 8
57 Jordan Morgan Mich 16.8 116 62 55 7 0 56 -13 5 6
58 Demetric Williams WSU 25.9 115 51 22 18 11 19 11 13 21
59 Kevin Ware Loui 17.0 115 54 23 14 18 21 -4 22 21
60 Tyler Thornton Duke 22.1 114 33 3 5 25 19 23 17 23
61 Nick Wiggins WSU 13.1 112 82 17 16 49 26 -8 8 4
62 Todd Mayo Marq 14.1 111 82 23 34 26 16 -6 10 9
63 Jerami Grant Syra 14.5 111 50 27 15 7 43 -5 14 10
64 Juan Anderson Marq 13.2 107 27 7 9 11 46 4 18 11
65 Jake White WSU 11.3 103 62 53 17 -8 54 -16 -4 7
66 Ehimen Orukpe WSU 15.7 102 26 23 3 0 60 -26 28 14
67 Trevor Cooney Syra 11.5 100 41 15 7 20 14 8 24 12
68 Chadrack Lufile WSU 8.2 97 38 34 4 0 46 -4 12 5
69 Spike Albrecht Mich 7.5 96 41 0 11 30 18 24 8 5
70 Derrick Wilson Marq 13.1 94 1 -1 3 -2 16 39 19 18
71 Josh Hairston Duke 12.7 75 31 23 8 -1 35 -8 -9 27
72 Caris LeVert Mich 10.6 71 17 1 4 13 16 20 -3 20
Worst Elite 8 Player 71 1 -1 3 -8 14 -29 -9 -39


Dan
March 30, 2013



Elite 8 Player Rankings

In terms of HnR, minimum 20% of available team minutes ranked, Chng is rating change since the tournament.  I colored coded the four games to make it easier to see player match ups:

Rnk Player Team Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS% HnR Chng
1 Trey Burke Mich 35.5 18.9 3.0 6.8 1.6 0.5 2.2 0.569 185 -2.8
2 Russ Smith Loui 30.0 18.8 3.4 3.0 2.1 0.1 2.7 0.545 174 5.9
3 Mason Plumlee Duke 34.5 17.1 9.9 1.9 1.0 1.5 2.8 0.618 170 1.3
4 Michael Carter-Williams Syra 35.2 12.1 4.8 7.5 2.7 0.5 3.4 0.490 164 2.5
5 Gorgui Dieng Loui 31.1 10.0 9.5 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.555 163 0.5
6 Davante Gardner Marq 21.1 11.4 4.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.6 0.659 162 -0.4
7 Deshaun Thomas OSU 35.3 19.7 6.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.551 159 -0.2
8 Erik Murphy Flor 26.6 12.6 5.5 1.4 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.662 158 0.1
9 James Southerland Syra 29.3 13.4 5.3 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.2 0.591 148 2.2
10 Patric Young Flor 26.6 10.2 6.3 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.568 148 -2.6
11 Shannon Scott OSU 20.8 4.9 2.7 3.9 1.8 0.3 1.3 0.479 147 -0.6
12 Seth Curry Duke 32.1 17.6 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.615 146 4.4
13 Peyton Siva Loui 30.9 9.7 2.3 5.8 2.2 0.1 2.8 0.513 146 -2.1
14 Ryan Kelly Duke 29.1 13.1 5.5 1.7 0.7 1.6 1.0 0.589 144 -3.9
15 Cleanthony Early WSU 24.6 13.7 5.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.6 0.554 144 6.1
16 Casey Prather Flor 17.0 6.2 3.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.624 143 0.3
17 Chane Behanan Loui 26.0 9.7 6.3 1.1 1.4 0.4 1.6 0.511 142 -2.4
18 Carl Hall WSU 28.6 12.7 7.0 0.7 0.4 1.6 1.3 0.574 142 4.3
19 Mitch McGary Mich 18.9 7.3 6.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 1.2 0.589 141 8.9
20 Aaron Craft OSU 34.0 10.1 3.5 4.7 2.1 0.2 1.9 0.516 140 0.0
21 Jamil Wilson Marq 25.1 9.9 4.9 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.556 140 3.3
22 Montrezl Harrell Loui 16.5 5.8 3.8 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.559 140 1.5
23 Malcolm Armstead WSU 28.3 10.8 3.8 4.0 1.9 0.1 2.2 0.525 140 6.3
24 Scottie Wilbekin Flor 32.1 9.3 2.9 4.9 1.4 0.1 2.1 0.556 136 -0.6
25 Kenny Boynton Flor 31.6 12.0 3.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 1.3 0.529 136 -0.9
26 Quinn Cook Duke 33.5 11.7 3.8 5.3 1.4 0.1 2.2 0.530 136 -3.1
27 Mike Rosario Flor 29.5 12.6 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.0 1.7 0.568 135 0.2
28 Wayne Blackshear Loui 20.4 7.9 3.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.538 134 1.5
29 C.J. Fair Syra 34.7 14.4 7.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.7 0.541 132 1.8
30 Luke Hancock Loui 22.1 7.4 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.1 1.1 0.564 132 -1.4
31 Brandon Triche Syra 33.5 13.8 3.3 3.5 1.3 0.1 2.8 0.517 131 2.9
32 Will Yeguete Flor 20.8 5.2 5.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 1.4 0.529 131 -1.5
33 Steve Taylor Marq 8.8 3.1 2.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.556 131 0.1
34 Sam Thompson OSU 24.9 7.9 3.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.576 130 1.9
35 Michael Frazier Flor 18.0 5.8 3.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.658 130 -3.6
36 Lenzelle Smith Jr. OSU 27.5 9.3 4.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 0.536 130 -0.2
37 Stephan Van Treese Loui 11.4 1.8 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.667 129 -1.1
38 Rasheed Sulaimon Duke 29.3 11.8 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.2 0.558 129 1.1
39 Tim Hardaway Jr. Mich 34.7 14.8 4.6 2.3 0.7 0.5 1.9 0.552 128 2.6
40 Glenn Robinson Mich 33.5 11.1 5.6 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.620 128 2.6
41 LaQuinton Ross OSU 16.8 8.0 2.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.573 128 3.9
42 Vander Blue Marq 32.8 14.8 3.2 1.8 1.1 0.0 2.3 0.545 127 1.3
43 Nik Stauskas Mich 31.2 11.3 3.1 1.3 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.623 127 2.3
44 Junior Cadougan Marq 28.0 8.6 2.9 3.9 1.1 0.1 2.5 0.500 126 -0.2
45 Chris Otule Marq 17.5 5.2 3.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.604 125 4.3
46 Amile Jefferson Duke 12.9 4.1 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.555 124 -0.1
47 Evan Ravenel OSU 17.1 5.1 4.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.543 124 1.0
48 Baye Moussa Keita Syra 16.7 3.8 3.7 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.612 124 2.9
49 Rakeem Christmas Syra 20.8 5.2 4.6 0.2 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.544 123 2.8
50 Trent Lockett Marq 27.0 7.2 5.1 1.9 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.520 123 2.3
51 Ron Baker WSU 25.2 8.6 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 1.3 0.581 123 11.7
52 Fred Van Vleet WSU 15.8 4.1 1.8 2.3 0.9 0.1 1.1 0.483 120 5.6
53 Amir Williams OSU 16.5 3.6 3.9 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.556 119 -2.3
54 Tekele Cotton WSU 23.4 6.3 3.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.504 118 5.8
55 Jordan Morgan Mich 16.8 4.9 4.5 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.581 116 1.4
56 Tyler Thornton Duke 22.1 3.5 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.1 1.1 0.562 115 2.4
57 Demetric Williams WSU 25.9 7.7 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.0 1.7 0.489 115 2.4
58 Kevin Ware Loui 17.0 4.6 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.1 1.1 0.529 115 3.4
59 Nick Wiggins WSU 13.1 5.0 1.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.574 112 4.0
60 Jerami Grant Syra 14.5 3.9 2.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.505 112 2.9
61 Todd Mayo Marq 14.1 5.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 0.523 108 -4.2
62 Juan Anderson Marq 13.2 2.7 2.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.419 107 -3.6
63 Jake White WSU 11.3 3.7 3.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.518 103 1.0
64 Ehimen Orukpe WSU 15.7 2.7 4.5 0.2 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.456 101 1.3
65 Trevor Cooney Syra 11.5 3.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.435 100 3.2
66 Derrick Wilson Marq 13.1 1.2 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.6 0.317 94 -1.9
67 Josh Hairston Duke 12.7 2.5 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.470 75 -3.8
68 Caris LeVert Mich 10.6 2.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.378 67 -4.3


The top 8 players from this group of teams have set themselves apart this season - from 7 different Elite Eight teams.  #1 Burke is a strong #1 here - although I jumped the gun a bit on my last post (his being #1 nationally) - his overall rating changed little in the win over Kansas, putting up numbers very similar to his season per minute averages in a faster paced game.  Hopefully he'll step up even more the next game - I really want someone to "seize" the #1 overall national ranking.

Dan
March 30, 2013


Thank you Trey Burke!

Sorry Kansas fans, this isn't a slam on your team - this is me wanting what's best for Hoops Nerd.  Let me quote myself from not even 12 hours ago on this site (the UM/KU write up):

"I'm pretty excited about this game - I'm really wanting Trey Burke to step up and claim the Hoops Nerd Rating throne for 2013.  As much as I like Otto Porter, I don't want him to squeak out the title by default.  Anthony Davis destroyed his competition last season to reach the HnR summit, Kemba Walker did the same the season before.  It's your turn now Trey."

And this....

"Trey Burke = stud.  It is very rare in college to see a guy who is BOTH a top 10 college player (or in Burke's case, top 3) in ball handling rating AND Top 100 in national scoring rating (Burke is 60th).  There's a reason he may end up the King - will he be able today to pull Excalibur out of the rock - and claim his HnR throne?  Does that make the Kansas team a big ass rock?  So many questions."

Well, we got some answers today.  I'm guessing Trey is now currently #1 in HnR - and I'd expect him to stay there unless he lays some massive egg next game.  I'll know more when I update the national rankings (I'll probably update UM's before the Sunday game for a write up, and update the national rankings come Monday morning).

Man that was a crazy game.  It wasn't looking good for Michigan OR the Hoops Nerd final player rankings until those final few minutes of regulation.

Now Trey - let's put some distance between #1 and #2, leaving no doubt.  I like dominance at the top.

Dan
March 30, 2013


Florida v. Florida Gulf Coast - The Sweet 16

Bunch of stats/ratings here - I will place this explanation below every write up.  These are rankings/ratings in Hoops Nerd Impact Rating and many subsets of that rating - scoring overall rating (as well as further broken down into 2pt field goal rating, 3pt ratings, and free throw rating), rebounding rating, ball handling rating, and defensive stops rating (with intangibles rating included - since a high intangibles rating often constitutes a good defensive player).  Players are color coded according to team.  The rankings on the left of the players' names (NatR)will be their national ranking among 2994 qualified players in that rating subset, and the next column (R16) their ranking among the 132 qualified Sweet 16 players.  Notice I include some "ghost players" in each ranking for comparison in black (D1 Best, Sweet 16 Best, Sweet 16 Average, D1 Average, Sweet 16 Worst, D1 Worst) - which I assume are fairly self explanatory and used for comparison purposes.  The Mi? column is the projected minutes for the game based on the minutes range played in the tourney combined with maximizing team rating.  Stats in the first table (the HnI Rating rankings) will be per game - the stats in the rest of the tables will be per 40 minutes (to easier compare player production at a glance).  The per 40 minute stat columns in each table obviously relate to that specific rating subset (2p40, 3p40, & FT40 are how many shots MADE per 40 minutes).  As always, each rating and rating subset takes into account team pace, strength of schedule, and team defense for the season.  This is why some players with "better looking" stats may rank lower than others with less impressive stats - usually it's a factor of a faster team pace (and/or weaker team defense forcing players to accumulate better stats in order to win games) or a weaker strength of schedule - or both.

Well, here's the REAL test for FGCU.  Sagarin Predictor has the Gators by 16.52, Pomeroy has Florida by 19(!), my overall team ratings have Florida winning by about 15 (+14.97), although the optimized lineups drop that down a couple points to +12.87.  I'm actually sort of happy that compiling the player ratings with projected playing times comes up with a number that is closest to the Vegas line - since we know the guy that sets the Vegas line is the smartest guy in the room.

NatR R16 Impact Rating Mi? HnI Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
D1 Best 189
Sweet 16 Best 186
22 8 Erik Murphy 28 162 26.6 12.8 5.5 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.670
66 18 Patric Young 29 150 26.5 10.3 6.3 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.577
87 21 Casey Prather 23 146 16.7 6.0 3.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.620
165 40 Scottie Wilbekin 34 137 32.2 9.2 2.9 5.0 1.5 0.1 2.1 0.562
174 42 Kenny Boynton 26 137 31.7 12.1 3.0 2.9 0.9 0.1 1.3 0.531
180 45 Mike Rosario 31 136 29.4 12.5 2.5 2.1 0.9 0.0 1.7 0.570
210 49 Chase Fieler 36 133 27.7 12.1 5.4 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 0.638
225 52 Will Yeguete 20 132 20.8 5.3 5.9 1.0 1.1 0.2 1.4 0.536
245 55 Bernard Thompson 36 131 30.0 14.5 4.5 1.8 2.8 0.1 2.2 0.556
248 56 Michael Frazier 9 131 18.2 5.8 3.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.651
Sweet 16 Average 130
384 79 Sherwood Brown 38 124 33.0 15.6 6.6 1.3 1.4 0.3 1.8 0.564
636 102 Brent Comer 33 116 27.0 8.1 3.1 6.6 1.5 0.2 3.5 0.458
1185 118 Eric McKnight 26 103 20.6 6.6 4.5 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.592
D1 Average 101
1806 125 Eddie Murray 17 92 17.6 3.8 3.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.585
2110 128 Dajuan Graf 6 86 13.1 2.4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.478
2160 129 Christophe Varidel 6 86 16.2 6.1 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.6 0.533
2725 132 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 70 13.2 3.7 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.402
Sweet 16 Worst 70
D1 Worst 13


Yes, the top 6 guys in this game are Gators.  Chase Fieler of FGCU is a pretty nice all around player.  The Gators have a 143 to 117 rating advantage according to the lineups.

NatR R16 Scoring Rating Mi? ScR Pts40 TS%
D1 Best 170
Sweet 16 Best 143
16 4 Erik Murphy 28 125 19.2 0.670
237 24 Mike Rosario 31 94 17.0 0.570
270 27 Chase Fieler 36 91 17.4 0.638
338 33 Bernard Thompson 36 88 19.4 0.556
346 34 Casey Prather 23 87 14.5 0.620
350 35 Patric Young 29 87 15.6 0.577
359 36 Sherwood Brown 38 87 18.9 0.564
516 52 Michael Frazier 9 80 12.7 0.651
621 61 Kenny Boynton 26 77 15.3 0.531
Sweet 16 Average 74
1095 81 Christophe Varidel 6 64 15.0 0.533
1168 83 Eric McKnight 26 62 12.8 0.592
1202 86 Scottie Wilbekin 34 62 11.4 0.562
D1 Average 59
1641 98 Will Yeguete 20 52 10.3 0.536
2107 116 Eddie Murray 17 42 8.7 0.585
2204 120 Brent Comer 33 39 12.0 0.458
2693 129 Dajuan Graf 6 26 7.3 0.478
2698 130 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 26 11.2 0.402
Sweet 16 Worst 1
D1 Worst -15


Erik Murphy is one of the most efficient shooters in the nation.  The next 6 players are pretty tightly grouped.  Florida has an 84 to 70 rating advantage here.

NatR R16 2pt Scoring Rating Mi? 2pR 2p40 2pt%
D1 Best 112
Sweet 16 Best 80
31 4 Casey Prather 23 78 6.2 0.642
47 6 Patric Young 29 74 6.3 0.598
229 21 Chase Fieler 36 56 5.3 0.644
312 29 Eric McKnight 26 52 5.2 0.608
396 38 Erik Murphy 28 48 4.0 0.625
616 52 Bernard Thompson 36 41 5.0 0.519
760 58 Sherwood Brown 38 37 4.4 0.533
Sweet 16 Average 36
853 62 Mike Rosario 31 35 3.6 0.514
862 64 Will Yeguete 20 35 3.5 0.525
1117 78 Eddie Murray 17 29 3.0 0.597
1130 79 Scottie Wilbekin 34 29 2.8 0.540
D1 Average 27
1382 87 Brent Comer 33 25 4.1 0.440
1509 93 Kenny Boynton 26 23 2.5 0.496
2341 120 Dajuan Graf 6 11 2.1 0.410
2467 123 Christophe Varidel 6 9 1.8 0.406
2763 126 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 4 1.2 0.371
2815 128 Michael Frazier 9 3 0.6 0.370
Sweet 16 Worst -14
D1 Worst -15


Some analyst earlier today said that Florida won't really be able to take advantage of FGCU's lack of height, since they mainly shoot threes.  Well, that's just not true, Florida is quite efficient from 2pt range - and will probably eat FGCU up a bit in the paint and from mid range.  Prather and Young are top 50 nationally in terms of their 2pt rating.  Florida shows a 43 to 38 rating advantage here.

NatR R16 Free Throw Rating Mi? FtR FT40 FT%
D1 Best 65
Sweet 16 Best 65
691 43 Christophe Varidel 6 22 3.4 0.831
756 46 Kenny Boynton 26 21 2.7 0.835
784 47 Mike Rosario 31 21 2.7 0.848
Sweet 16 Average 19
935 55 Bernard Thompson 36 19 3.5 0.662
1053 61 Chase Fieler 36 18 3.0 0.735
1121 67 Will Yeguete 20 17 3.0 0.582
D1 Average 16
1238 69 Dajuan Graf 6 16 2.8 0.717
1399 79 Sherwood Brown 38 15 2.7 0.669
1585 87 Patric Young 29 14 2.9 0.504
1617 92 Eddie Murray 17 13 2.3 0.706
1673 97 Erik Murphy 28 13 1.8 0.784
1685 98 Michael Frazier 9 13 1.7 0.839
1835 103 Brent Comer 33 12 2.2 0.635
1957 105 Eric McKnight 26 11 2.5 0.535
1993 107 Scottie Wilbekin 34 10 1.5 0.695
2332 119 Casey Prather 23 8 1.5 0.548
2367 121 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 8 1.3 0.714
Sweet 16 Worst 3
D1 Worst -6


The question I have is, how in the world is Christophe Varidel actually good at getting to the line and making his free throws, when he's not particularly good at anything else?  Neither team has a good free throw rating - both coming in at 15.

NatR R16 3pt Scoring Rating Mi? 3pR 3p40 3pt%
D1 Best 93
Sweet 16 Best 65
29 1 Michael Frazier 9 65 3.2 0.463
33 2 Erik Murphy 28 64 3.2 0.462
312 16 Mike Rosario 31 38 2.4 0.376
413 25 Sherwood Brown 38 34 2.5 0.380
433 28 Christophe Varidel 6 34 2.7 0.351
443 29 Kenny Boynton 26 33 2.5 0.326
654 42 Bernard Thompson 36 28 2.0 0.381
888 55 Scottie Wilbekin 34 22 1.4 0.370
Sweet 16 Average 20
1111 66 Chase Fieler 36 18 1.3 0.376
D1 Average 16
1266 71 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 14 2.5 0.255
1913 90 Brent Comer 33 3 0.5 0.260
2022 92 Casey Prather 23 2 0.2 0.286
2145 94 Will Yeguete 20 0 0.1 0.250
2195 98 Patric Young 29 0 0.0 -
2295 107 Eric McKnight 26 0 0.0 -
2697 122 Dajuan Graf 6 -1 0.1 0.167
2767 125 Eddie Murray 17 -1 0.1 0.167
Sweet 16 Worst -8
D1 Worst -17


Florida has two very dangerous three point gunslingers, and three other very good ones.  The Gators have a 26 to 16 rating advantage from three point range.

NatR R16 Rebound Rating Mi? RbR Orb/40 Drb/40 Rb/40
D1 Best 84
Sweet 16 Best 72
86 9 Will Yeguete 20 60 3.8 7.5 11.3
225 30 Patric Young 29 53 4.0 5.5 9.5
387 37 Casey Prather 23 48 3.2 5.7 8.9
627 47 Erik Murphy 28 42 2.3 6.0 8.3
827 55 Eric McKnight 26 39 2.9 5.8 8.7
947 60 Chase Fieler 36 36 3.2 4.6 7.8
1012 63 Eddie Murray 17 35 3.8 3.1 6.9
Sweet 16 Average 34
1127 67 Michael Frazier 9 33 1.0 6.1 7.2
1131 69 Sherwood Brown 38 33 1.9 6.1 8.0
D1 Average 29
1472 76 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 28 1.5 5.1 6.6
1558 78 Bernard Thompson 36 26 1.8 4.2 6.0
2088 102 Brent Comer 33 19 1.1 3.6 4.6
2180 108 Christophe Varidel 6 18 0.9 3.6 4.5
2204 109 Dajuan Graf 6 18 0.4 4.4 4.8
2248 111 Kenny Boynton 26 18 0.6 3.1 3.8
2257 112 Mike Rosario 31 18 1.0 2.4 3.4
2292 114 Scottie Wilbekin 34 17 0.7 2.9 3.6
Sweet 16 Worst 12
D1 Worst 6


No elite rebounders, although Yeguete is quite good.  FGCU actually rebounds mainly by committee - the overall Florida rating advantage isn't as big as one would expect from first glance at the rankings, just 34 to 30.

NatR R16 Ball Handling Rating Mi? BhR As40 To40
D1 Best 61
Sweet 16 Best 61
17 5 Brent Comer 33 45 9.7 5.2
32 6 Scottie Wilbekin 34 41 6.2 2.6
220 19 Kenny Boynton 26 22 3.6 1.7
361 27 Dajuan Graf 6 17 4.2 2.5
806 48 Mike Rosario 31 7 2.8 2.4
Sweet 16 Average 6
1011 59 Michael Frazier 9 4 2.1 1.9
1179 65 Erik Murphy 28 2 2.1 2.0
1261 69 Chase Fieler 36 1 2.3 2.3
D1 Average 1
1296 72 Casey Prather 23 1 2.2 2.3
1651 82 Bernard Thompson 36 -3 2.3 2.9
1790 86 Sherwood Brown 38 -5 1.5 2.2
1863 88 Eddie Murray 17 -5 0.8 1.6
1887 89 Will Yeguete 20 -6 2.0 2.7
1947 90 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 -6 0.7 1.5
2209 100 Patric Young 29 -9 1.3 2.3
2788 123 Eric McKnight 26 -17 0.6 2.7
2854 125 Christophe Varidel 6 -19 1.5 3.9
Sweet 16 Worst -29
D1 Worst -43


Comer is a huge risk/reward passer, and Wilbekin is a very underrated point guard nationally.  Florida has the has the rating advantage, 10 to 3.

NatR R16 Defensive Stops Rating Mi? DfR St40 Bk40 PF40
D1 Best 63
Sweet 16 Best 45
59 8 Bernard Thompson 36 31 3.8 0.1 3.3
114 15 Patric Young 29 27 1.3 2.5 3.5
183 20 Casey Prather 23 25 2.1 1.4 4.9
412 44 Chase Fieler 36 20 1.5 1.9 4.1
456 48 Will Yeguete 20 19 2.1 0.5 3.6
508 50 Brent Comer 33 18 2.3 0.2 2.8
639 56 Scottie Wilbekin 34 17 1.8 0.1 2.3
Sweet 16 Average 16
855 67 Sherwood Brown 38 14 1.7 0.3 2.4
940 71 Dajuan Graf 6 14 2.0 0.1 3.3
1042 80 Eric McKnight 26 13 0.8 2.5 5.6
D1 Average 11
1286 90 Mike Rosario 31 11 1.3 0.0 1.6
1361 92 Kenny Boynton 26 11 1.1 0.1 1.1
1757 105 Erik Murphy 28 9 1.0 1.0 4.3
2081 116 Michael Frazier 9 7 1.2 0.1 3.3
2244 121 Eddie Murray 17 6 0.8 0.9 4.3
2296 123 Christophe Varidel 6 5 1.2 0.0 3.2
2592 128 Filip Cvjeticanin 2 3 0.4 0.4 2.1
Sweet 16 Worst -9
D1 Worst -13


Thompson of FGCU is a big time ball hawk, Young of Florida is a nice shot blocker, and Prather is a jack of all trades in terms of defensive stops - although he is foul prone.  FGCU actually enjoys their only rating advantage here (although free throw rating is a toss up), 18 to 16.

It's very hard to see how FGCU could win this game - Florida is just pretty much better at everything across the board.  I think FGCU would need a cold Florida shooting night (ESPECIALLY from three), they'd need their starters to stay out of foul trouble, and they'd need to compete at the boards - and they'll have a shot.  Tall order - Florida probably has too many good shooters/scorers to allow it to happen.

Dan
March 29, 2013


Michigan State v. Duke - The Sweet 16

Bunch of stats/ratings here - I will place this explanation below every write up.  These are rankings/ratings in Hoops Nerd Impact Rating and many subsets of that rating - scoring overall rating (as well as further broken down into 2pt field goal rating, 3pt ratings, and free throw rating), rebounding rating, ball handling rating, and defensive stops rating (with intangibles rating included - since a high intangibles rating often constitutes a good defensive player).  Players are color coded according to team.  The rankings on the left of the players' names (NatR)will be their national ranking among 2994 qualified players in that rating subset, and the next column (R16) their ranking among the 132 qualified Sweet 16 players.  Notice I include some "ghost players" in each ranking for comparison in black (D1 Best, Sweet 16 Best, Sweet 16 Average, D1 Average, Sweet 16 Worst, D1 Worst) - which I assume are fairly self explanatory and used for comparison purposes.  The Mi? column is the projected minutes for the game based on the minutes range played in the tourney combined with maximizing team rating.  Stats in the first table (the HnI Rating rankings) will be per game - the stats in the rest of the tables will be per 40 minutes (to easier compare player production at a glance).  The per 40 minute stat columns in each table obviously relate to that specific rating subset (2p40, 3p40, & FT40 are how many shots MADE per 40 minutes).  As always, each rating and rating subset takes into account team pace, strength of schedule, and team defense for the season.  This is why some players with "better looking" stats may rank lower than others with less impressive stats - usually it's a factor of a faster team pace (and/or weaker team defense forcing players to accumulate better stats in order to win games) or a weaker strength of schedule - or both.

This should be a nail biter.  Sagarin Predictor has Duke by just under one (+0.86), Pomeroy has Duke by 1, my overall team ratings have Duke by just over a half a point (+0.61), while the optimized lineups like MSU by +0.39.

NatR R16 Impact Rating Mi? HnI Mn/g Pt/g Rb/g A/g S/g B/g T/g TS%
D1 Best 189
Sweet 16 Best 186
12 6 Mason Plumlee 32 169 34.5 17.2 10.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.9 0.617
30 13 Adreian Payne 34 160 25.3 10.4 7.5 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.8 0.629
40 15 Ryan Kelly 31 156 28.7 13.3 5.4 1.7 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.598
88 22 Derrick Nix 33 146 27.7 10.0 6.5 1.6 1.1 0.1 1.5 0.554
99 23 Seth Curry 36 144 31.9 17.3 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.2 0.611
106 27 Branden Dawson 31 143 27.0 9.1 6.0 1.3 1.6 0.9 2.1 0.530
111 28 Gary Harris 32 142 29.5 13.1 2.5 1.3 1.3 0.2 1.5 0.593
160 37 Quinn Cook 36 138 33.9 12.0 3.9 5.4 1.5 0.1 2.2 0.537
162 39 Keith Appling 32 138 33.5 13.3 3.5 3.4 1.3 0.5 2.3 0.517
Sweet 16 Average 130
284 65 Denzel Valentine 17 129 20.9 5.0 4.2 2.5 0.8 0.3 2.0 0.515
297 69 Rasheed Sulaimon 30 129 29.1 11.7 3.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.3 0.556
- - Matt Costello 5 124 6.1 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.543
390 80 Amile Jefferson 6 124 12.9 4.1 3.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.555
685 103 Tyler Thornton 18 115 22.0 3.5 2.3 2.2 1.3 0.1 1.1 0.553
808 110 Travis Trice 13 112 18.7 4.7 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.0 1.3 0.442
D1 Average 101
- - Alex Murphy 1 88 6.4 2.1 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.525
- - Alex Gauna 2 80 6.1 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.551
2551 130 Josh Hairston 10 77 12.9 2.6 2.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.470
Sweet 16 Worst 70
- - Russell Byrd 1 52 7.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.364
D1 Worst 13


Three top 50 players, 5 top 100, 7 top 125, and 9 top 200 players.  Even great match ups - Plumlee/Payne, Kelly/Nix, Curry/Harris, Cook/Appling - Dawson of MSU appears to be the wildcard among those top 9 players.  These lineups appear to give MSU the slightest of rating advantages, 141 to 140.

NatR R16 Scoring Rating Mi? ScR Pts40 TS%
D1 Best 170
Sweet 16 Best 143
20 6 Seth Curry 36 123 21.7 0.611
50 10 Mason Plumlee 32 114 19.9 0.617
71 12 Gary Harris 32 109 17.8 0.593
81 13 Adreian Payne 34 108 16.5 0.629
111 17 Ryan Kelly 31 103 18.6 0.598
481 46 Rasheed Sulaimon 30 82 16.1 0.556
484 47 Keith Appling 32 82 15.9 0.517
487 48 Derrick Nix 33 82 14.4 0.554
Sweet 16 Average 74
774 68 Branden Dawson 31 72 13.4 0.530
861 76 Quinn Cook 36 69 14.2 0.537
1062 80 Amile Jefferson 6 65 12.7 0.555
- - Alex Murphy 1 63 13.3 0.525
D1 Average 59
- - Matt Costello 5 55 9.9 0.543
1774 105 Denzel Valentine 17 49 9.6 0.515
- - Alex Gauna 2 47 8.3 0.551
2267 121 Travis Trice 13 38 9.9 0.442
2476 123 Tyler Thornton 18 32 6.4 0.553
2525 124 Josh Hairston 10 31 8.0 0.470
- - Russell Byrd 1 16 8.5 0.364
Sweet 16 Worst 1
D1 Worst -15


Curry is a Top 20 rated scorer (ok, barely).  Plumlee works for his points.  Harris & Payne are an underrated outside/inside combo because of the slow, tough pace of their Big 10 games repressing their shots a bit.  Yes, Ryan Kelly is a shooter too.  Duke has the advantage here obviously in terms of ratings, 88 to 82.

NatR R16 2pt Scoring Rating Mi? 2pR 2p40 2pt%
D1 Best 112
Sweet 16 Best 80
26 3 Mason Plumlee 32 80 7.2 0.598
108 11 Adreian Payne 34 65 5.4 0.583
125 14 Branden Dawson 31 64 5.8 0.539
- - Alex Murphy 1 60 4.6 0.710
274 25 Derrick Nix 33 54 5.2 0.514
346 31 Amile Jefferson 6 50 5.1 0.543
- - Alex Gauna 2 44 3.9 0.556
Sweet 16 Average 36
879 65 Gary Harris 32 34 3.4 0.509
898 68 Seth Curry 36 34 3.8 0.510
981 69 Keith Appling 32 32 3.8 0.461
1083 76 Denzel Valentine 17 30 2.8 0.531
- - Matt Costello 5 29 3.4 0.469
1194 80 Ryan Kelly 31 28 3.7 0.466
1246 83 Rasheed Sulaimon 30 27 3.4 0.470
D1 Average 27
1455 89 Josh Hairston 10 23 3.3 0.449
1523 95 Quinn Cook 36 22 3.2 0.443
- - Russell Byrd 1 20 1.4 0.700
2793 127 Tyler Thornton 18 3 0.5 0.429
2993 132 Travis Trice 13 -14 0.8 0.185
Sweet 16 Worst -14
D1 Worst -15


MSU does it the old fashioned way - work for shots as close to the hoop as you can.  Plumlee is highly ranked nationally in terms of making twos, but the next three best in this game who get real minutes are all MSU guys.  Payne, Dawson, and Nix work hard for those points - and help free up the range shooters.  MSU has a decided 43 to 35 rating advantage here.

NatR R16 Free Throw Rating Mi? FtR FT40 FT%
D1 Best 65
Sweet 16 Best 65
127 6 Mason Plumlee 32 35 5.6 0.672
174 12 Ryan Kelly 31 32 4.5 0.810
194 13 Keith Appling 32 32 4.2 0.741
232 16 Seth Curry 36 30 4.3 0.812
237 17 Adreian Payne 34 30 3.7 0.837
302 19 Derrick Nix 33 28 3.9 0.699
- - Matt Costello 5 25 3.1 0.824
574 37 Rasheed Sulaimon 30 23 3.2 0.800
588 38 Gary Harris 32 23 3.0 0.766
Sweet 16 Average 19
D1 Average 16
1405 81 Quinn Cook 36 15 2.0 0.866
1501 84 Amile Jefferson 6 14 2.5 0.610
2037 111 Travis Trice 13 10 1.4 0.708
2056 112 Denzel Valentine